Seasonal Cycles

posted under by ceecabolos
All markets are affected to some extent by an annual seasonal cycle. The seasonal cycle refers to the tendency for markets to move in a given direction at certain times of the year. The most obvious seasonals involve the grain markets where seasonal lows usually occur around harvest time when supply is most plentiful. In soybeans, for example, most seasonal tops occur between April and June with seasonal bottoms taking place between August and October. (See Figure 14.21.) One well known seasonal pattern is the "February Break" where grain and soybean prices usually drop from late December or early January into February.Although the reasons for seasonal tops and bottoms are more obvious in the agricultural markets, virtually all markets experience seasonal patterns. Copper, for example, shows a strong seasonal uptrend from the January/February period with a ten­dency to top in March or April. (See Figure 14.22.) Silver has a low in January with higher prices into March. Gold shows a tendency to bottom in August. Petroleum products have a tendency to peak during October and usually don't bottom until the end of the winter. (See Figure 14.23.) Financial markets also have seasonal patterns.The U.S. Dollar has a tendency to bottom during January. (See Figure 14.24.) Treasury Bond prices usually hit important highs during January. Over the entire year, Treasury Bond prices are usually weaker during the first half of the year and stronger during the second half. (See Figure 14.25.) The examples of sea­sonal charts are provided by the Moore Research Center (Moore Research Center, 321 West 13th Avenue, Eugene, OR 97401, (800) 927-7259), which specializes in seasonal analysis of futures mar­kets.

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