How to Isolate Cycles

posted under by ceecabolos
In order to study the various cycles affecting any given market, it is necessary to first isolate each dominant cycle. There are various ways of accomplishing this task. The simplest is by visual inspec­tion. By studying daily bar charts, for example, it is possible to identify obvious tops and bottoms in a market. By taking the aver­age time periods between those cyclic tops and bottoms, certain average lengths can be found.
There are tools available to make that task a bit easier. One such tool is the Ehrlich Cycle Finder, named after its inventor, Stan Ehrlich (ECF, 112 Vida Court, Novato, CA 94947 [415] 892-1183). The Cycle Finder is an accordion-like device that can be placed on the price chart for visual inspection. The distance between the points is always equidistant and can be expanded or contracted to fit any cycle length. By plotting a distance between any two obvi­ous cycle lows, it can be quickly determined if other cycle lows of the same length exist. An electronic version of that device, called the Ehrlich Cycle Forecaster, is now available as an analysis tech­nique on Omega Research's Trade Station and Super Charts (#Omega Research, 8700 West Flagler Street, Suite 250, Miami, FL 33174, [305] 551-9991, www.omegaresearch.com). (See Figures 14.16-14.18.)Computers can help you find cycles by visual inspection. The user first puts a price chart on the screen. The next step is to pick a prominent bottom on the chart as a starting point. Once that is done, vertical lines (or arcs) appear every 10 days (the default value). The cycle periods can be lengthened, shortened, or moved left or right to find the right cycle fit on the chart

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