The Presidential Cycle
posted under
Philosophy of Technical Analysis
by ceecabolos
Another well known cycle that affects stock market behavior is the 4 year cycle, also called the Presidential Cycle, because it coincides with the elected term of U.S. presidents. Each of the 4 years has a different historical return. The election year (1) is normally strong. The postelection and midyears (2 and 3) are normally weak. The preelection year (4) is normally strong. According to Hirsch's Trader's Almanac, election years since 1904 have seen averages gains of 224%; postelection years, gains of 72%; midterm years, gains of 63%; and preelection years, gains of 217%.
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