Technical analysis can play a role in economic forecasting. For example, the direction of commodity prices tells us something about the direction of inflation. They also give us clues about the strength or weakness of the economy. Rising commodity prices generally hint at a stronger economy and rising inflationary pres­sure. Falling commodity prices usually warn that the economy is slowing along with inflation. The direction of interest rates is affect­ed by the trend of commodities. As a result, charts of commodity markets like gold and oil, along with Treasury Bonds, can tell us a lot about the strength or weakness of the economy and inflation­ary expectations. The direction of the U.S. dollar and foreign cur­rency futures also provide early guidance about the strength or weakness of the respective global economies. Even more impressive is the fact that trends in these futures markets usually show up long before they are reflected in traditional economic indicators that are released on a monthly or quarterly basis, and usually tell us what has already happened. As their name implies, futures markets usu­ally give us insights into the future. The S&P SOO stock market index has long been counted as an official leading economic indi­cator. A book by one of the country's top experts on the business
cycle, Leading Indicators for the 1990s (Moore), makes a compelling
case for the importance of commodity, bond, and stock trends as economic indicators. All three markets can be studied employing technical analysis. We'll have more to say on this subject in Chapter 17, "The Link Between Stocks and Futures."